Asif Kasim

CANADA HOUSING MARKET: HOUSING RESALE ACTIVITY PICKED UP IN MAY 2025ARE WE WITNESSING EASING EFFECTS FROM TRADE-RELATED UNCERTAINTY ON HOUSING DEMAND? SUMMARY National housing resale activity increased from April to May with both sales and new listings rising, leaving market conditions relatively unchanged over this period. Sales increased 3.6% (sa figures) nationally from April to May, following a 0.8% increase from March to April (revised from an initially published -0.1% decline). Despite monthly increases in the last 2 months, national sales were -4.3% (nsa) weaker in May 2025 than in May 2024. In May 2025, national sales were about 35% lower than their February 2022 level, the month just before the Bank of Canada started its tightening cycle for its policy rate. National new listings rose 3.1% (m/m sa) in May and were 8% higher (nsa) than their level in the same month of 2024. In May, new listings continued their upward trend since their recent trough in March 2023. From this period to May 2025, national new listings increased by more than 40% (from sa figures). With the modestly stronger increase in national sales than for new listings, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened negligibly, rising from 46.8% to 47.0% from April to May, suggesting resale conditions stayed essentially unchanged over this period and are still within the estimated balanced conditions range, but very close to the buyers favouring conditions zone. Indeed, observed (sa) levels for this indicator in the last 3 months were the lowest since February 2009. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.june-16--2025.html

By TD Economics Amid a downgraded national growth profile for 2025, were retaining our view that the Atlantic and Prairie Regions outperform this year. B.C.s economy is also expected to display resilience. In contrast, Ontario and Quebec are poised for much softer growth performances given their relatively high orientation towards manufacturing. Provincial economies across the country benefitted from a sharp rise in exports in Q1 due to tariff-front running, but the near-term trade picture is indeed rocky. Ontario and Quebec will see disproportionate impacts from U.S. tariffs on the steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors. Were also expecting that additional U.S. levies on copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber will be applied. Our assumption of a gradual easing in U.S. tariff rates by year end means that the stage is set for a modest recovery in Canadas industrial heartland in 2026. Commodity based economies are holding up better this year, but growth has still been downgraded relative to March. Expedited OPEC+ output plans and weak global demand have led us to mark down our oil price forecast, accentuated by an unexpectedly strong Canadian dollar. The recent escalation in Middle East tensions pose an upside risk to prices in H2-2025. Canadas labour market continues to cool. Ontario, Quebec, B.C., and Manitoba have been absorbing most of the shock so far this year, as unemployment rates have risen faster than in other regions. Unemployment rates in the Atlantic provinces have broadly stabilized as employment growth and labour force growth have weakened in tandem. Saskatchewans labour market is the clear provincial standout due to its relative strength. With this years provincial budget season wrapping, a few themes have emerged. Provincial revenues and overall fiscal balances are expected to take a hit this year, reflecting U.S. trade tensions, and provinces have introduced measures to buffer their respective economies in the short run. Ramped up capital spending plans also featured heavily. This could lift economic growth, but is also expected to boost already-elevated debt burdens. With some signals that pent-up demand may be returning, were expecting positive growth in home sales in the back half of next year across Canada. Still, a weak economy and uncertainty should keep sales levels subdued. Near-term national home price growth will be restrained by loose supply/demand balances in B.C. and Ontario, although firmer price gains are expected elsewhere, where conditions are considerably tighter. https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast